Trolling to weaken the EU while winking at Trump: the first week of Hungary's rotating EU presidency

• The Hungarian EU Presidency is focused on trolling instead of loyal cooperation. The first week of the EU presidency has confirmed what the presidency's MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) slogan already suggested: the Hungarian government is using the attention and symbolic power that comes with the presidency to troll and provoke the European mainstream, to punch above its weight, to amplify its messages and to make gestures to its international allies, especially Donald Trump.
• Orbán’s own group in the European Parliament and the so-called “peace mission” are partly a spectacle and a smokescreen for the domestic audience. The European elections did not turn out as Viktor Orbán had expected, but the international political offensive timed to coincide with the start of the Hungarian presidency seems to have been successful so far, at least from a domestic point of view. After failing to “occupy Brussels” as he promised during the election campaign and being rejected by Giorgia Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group – while his main domestic political opponent, Péter Magyar, easily joined the strongest group, the European People's Party – Orbán has, at least seemingly, formed his own group. Meanwhile, he has embarked on a so-called “peace mission,” trying to present himself as a successful and respected European leader and global peacemaker, especially to the Hungarian public and especially to Fidesz voters.
• Patriots for Europe = ID 2.0 - more potent, AfD-free, but still pro-Kremlin and far-right. The new group, which was formed on 8 July as the third largest group in the European Parliament (EP) with 84 MEPs, is indeed a success for Orbán, as Fidesz has become the second largest force in a group of potent European parties. Although Orbán laid the cornerstone for the group together with the FPÖ’s Herbert Kickl and ANO’s Andrej Babis, it could not have been created without a prior agreement with Marine Le Pen, the leader of the former Identity and Democracy (ID) group. The group is essentially a rebranding of the ID, facilitated by the participation of Fidesz and ANO, alongside the ousting of the AfD. The aim is, on the one hand, to shake off the unacceptable, extremist and toxic stigma attached to ID, to break out of the political quarantine that has been established against it, and, on the other hand, to gain influence and a voice on the European stage as a group that can provide potential (hopeful) prime ministers and heads of state. The Patriots, on the other hand, are expected to continue ID's pro-Kremlin stance, wrapped in a pro-peace narrative. Although their influence in the EP is likely to remain limited, it could increase in the European Council and the Council of the European Union in the coming years, significantly increasing the risk of Russian influence.
• The so-called "peace mission": reality-distorting trolling to weaken the EU while winking at Trump. The Hungarian government is deliberately confusing the EU presidency with the prime minister's diplomatic PR stunt called a peace mission. Orbán’s authoritarian partners are happy to play along because it serves their purposes, which is to weaken the EU. Although Moscow and Beijing are well aware that Orbán is only representing Hungary in these meetings, which cannot promote peace because of its weight and pro-Russian policies, it is to their advantage to pretend that they are being visited by an EU representative. Apart from playing to the domestic audience, the Hungarian government’s goal is to expand the maneuvering room of itself and its pro-Putin allies and, above all, to maintain and strengthen Trump's attention and sympathy. Like the MEGA slogan, the intention to make peace is a gesture towards Trump: both a message to stroke his ego and a practical support for his policies, as it is in line with the declared goal of the former (and, Orbán hopes, future) US president.
• Against the national interests of Hungary and its allies. While last week’s developments do not rule out the possibility that the Hungarian EU Presidency will be an honest broker between member states and the institutions on practical and pragmatic issues, conflicts on symbolic issues are bound to arise due to the continued expected trolling role and the serious differences between the Hungarian and the majority EU positions. The Hungarian presidency could cause serious symbolic damage to the EU and disrupt the organization from within. Orban could also use the attention and symbolic role of the EU presidency to weaken NATO, as suggested by his Newsweek op-ed published before his arrival in Washington D.C. for the 75th NATO Summit. In addition to going against basic national interests for short-term political gain, this is also a way to appease countries like Russia, which threatens Europe's security, and strategic competitor China.