What Would Happen to the World if China Invaded Taiwan?

Speakers:

• Ivana Karásková - China Team Lead, Association for International Affairs.
• Michael Cole - Research Fellow and Executive Editor, Prospect Foundation; Senior Non-Resident Fellow, Global Taiwan Institute; Senior Fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
• Liu Shih-chung - Taiwan Representative to Hungary.
• Tamás Matura - Associate Professor, Corvinus University of Budapest.
• Tzuli Wu - Associate Research Fellow, Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
• Moderator: Lili Takács - Journalist, 444.hu

Main takeaways

• For China, a peaceful reunification would be the best solution to the Taiwan issue. The likelihood of a direct Chinese military attack is low, as they would not be able to execute it by surprise and would need a vast amount of resources. Taiwan aims to show China that this would not be just a small, localized conflict.
• It is important to recognise that even in the case of Ukraine, it has been a challenge to obtain military equipment and other support, despite the fact that Ukraine has common borders with the EU. In contrast, Taiwan is much more isolated from Western powers.
• We are not just talking about this conflict, North Korea could also attack Japan, and we also do not know how Russia would react to this whole situation. Tzuli Wu suggests we take a look at the map and see the countries closer geographically, because they are the ones who can assist fastly when needed. China, North Korea and Russia, all are nuclear threats. Because of this, in the case of a direct conflict, Japan and Taiwan could cooperate.
• Defense military developments are crucial, with Japan and Australia both advancing, and the U.S. providing support. In case of an attack, there would be increased US military presence in Taiwan, which is something China wants to avoid.
• China has learned from the sanctions imposed on Russia. China's economy is much stronger than Russia's and better integrated into the global economy, any economic disruptions would have a greater impact on both China and Western powers. China is keen to avoid such outcomes.
• The economic consequences of a China Taiwan conflict would be vast, affecting the entire world. Both the EU and the US are working to develop their own chip manufacturing capacities to reduce dependency, but this will take considerable time.
• Taiwan supports Kosovo and other Balkan states in their democratization efforts.

Policy recommendations

• It would be important for the EU to develop a coherent plan regarding Taiwan.
• The countries of Central and Eastern Europe need to realize that Taiwan is not as far as it seems (the economic impact of such a conflict would strongly affect them as well).
• It is crucial for Europe to become economically more independent and diversify its economy.