Prioritizing politics over policy? - Hungarian EU Presidency Watch

Issue 1-2: A review of the first three months, July – September 2024

Key findings

• The first three months of the Hungarian presidency have been a mixed bag, characterized by a mix of "honest broker" and "trolling" approaches.
• The trolling approach was symbolized by the presidency's slogan "Make Europe Great Again " (MEGA), an unmistakable reference to former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, and Viktor Orbán's so-called "peace mission", the Hungarian prime minister's visit to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and Donald Trump right at the beginning of the presidency in early July, disguised as part of the presidency.
• Both the MEGA slogan and the so-called "peace mission" have made it clear that the Hungarian government intends to use the attention and symbolic power that comes with the presidency to troll and provoke the European mainstream, to punch above its weight, to amplify its messages internationally, to make gestures to its authoritarian partners and illiberal allies, and to present Prime Minister Orbán to the Hungarian public in particular as a successful and respected European leader and global peacemaker.
• Although Orbán's so-called "peace mission" provoked a significant outcry among other EU governments, resulting in strong statements and a partial boycott of high-level meetings in Budapest, it does not seem to have affected the day-to-day functioning of the Hungarian Presidency and the work at lower official and expert levels.
• In terms of policy areas, the Hungarian presidency focuses primarily on competitiveness, integrating other issues such as cohesion policy, demographic challenges, and enlargement policy. Despite his government’s own efforts to achieve a New European Competitiveness Deal, Prime Minister Orbán argues for "economic neutrality" and demands more (economic) sovereignty for Hungary when speaking to domestic audiences.
• Apart from the so-called "peace mission" and a few other symbolic events, the Hungarian presidency has so far largely flown under the domestic and international radar, partly as a consequence of the EU's institutional transition after the June elections and partly because most EU partners are likely to avoid highlighting it.
• The EU Presidency is not at the forefront of the government's domestic communication, but it is used as a reference or proof of success when needed (e.g. during the prime minister's diplomatic tour in July or the presentation of his economic vision).

1. The political dimensions: Duplicitous tactics – honest broker vs. trolling

Based on the official program "Hungary will work as an honest broker, in a spirit of sincere cooperation between member states and institutions, for the peace, security and prosperity of a truly strong Europe". The government - with EU Affairs Minister János Bóka in a leading role - is doing its best to implement the official programs in the spirit of the original vision.

On the other hand, the slogan of the EU presidency, "Make Europe Great Again" (MEGA), is an unmistakable reference to Donald Trump. In the very first week of the EU presidency, Prime Minister Orbán embarked on a diplomatic tour, visiting Volodymyr Zelensky, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in a row, referring to himself as the prime minister of a country holding the EU presidency. Orbán has said that he sees Hungary's EU presidency as a peace mission and that he intends to prepare a report on peace options for the European Council by the end of the year.

Along with many European leaders who criticized and opposed Orbán’s diplomatic tour, European Council President Charles Michel clarified that the rotating presidency does not give a government a mandate to engage with other countries on behalf of the EU. Orbán conceded that this was the case and insisted that he had negotiated with these world leaders as the Hungary’s prime minister. Nevertheless, the damage had already been done, the disunity of the EU had been demonstrated, and the authoritarian leaders were happy to play along by welcoming Orbán as EU president.

1.1. Political consequences

PM Orbán’s diplomatic tour seemed to push through the original plans of the Hungarian EU presidency to be an honest broker between member states and the institutions on practical and pragmatic issues.

• A number of EU foreign affairs ministers planned to boycott a meeting in Budapest, and the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, convened an informal summit of EU foreign and defense ministers in Brussels on the same day as the planned meeting in Budapest. According to Borrell, “I thought it was much more appropriate to do this in Brussels because some of the positions expressed by the Hungarian government go directly against the Common Foreign [and Security] Policy. It was much better to do that at home.”
• The majority of EU countries boycotted the September meeting of EU finance ministers in Budapest, with only six of the 27 ministers attending. In contrast, Hungary’s Finance Minister Mihály Varga highlighted the participation of international organizations such as the IMF and the OECD, calling the meeting “a success in all aspects.”
• Due to their symbolic and high-level character, the remaining most important events of the Hungarian presidency are the European Political Community (EPC) summit and the informal EU summit focused on the Western Balkans, which will take place on 7-8 November. According to VSquare, the full participation of EU leaders at the summits is in jeopardy, with EU capitals closely watching Orbán's moves before deciding whether to attend.

2. The policy dimensions: Competitiveness at the forefront

The official priorities of the Hungarian presidency are as follows:

• New European Competitiveness Deal
• The Reinforcement of European Defense Policy
• A Consistent and Merit-Based Enlargement Policy
• Stemming Illegal Migration
• Shaping the Future of Cohesion Policy
• A Farmer-Centered EU Agricultural Policy
• Addressing Demographic Challenges

2.1. New European Competitiveness Deal

Hungarian ministers often emphasize that all other priorities are subordinate to competitiveness and serve this particular goal. Since the beginning of the Hungarian Presidency, there have been two informal meetings on competitiveness in Budapest, a meeting of competitiveness ministers and a meeting of European affairs ministers, i.e. the General Affairs Council, and a Competitiveness Council in Brussels. The aim of the government is to reach an agreement on the framework for a New European Competitiveness Deal by the end of the presidency.

The Draghi report: On 16 September a high-level report was published by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. The report provides a loud wake-up call on the challenges facing Europe: the innovation gap, decarbonization and reducing dependencies, and proposes a number of relevant horizontal policies. It is full of well-founded proposals for EU competition policy that will allow it to contribute even more to productivity, innovation and resilience.

The Hungarian government uses the Draghi report as a reference point when presenting its economic policy plans, even though the report does not necessarily confirm them. According to PM Orbán, who outlined his vision of the future challenges facing the global economy in a lengthy speech on 25 September, there will be no common response to the problem of European competitiveness, so Hungary must act individually. Orbán has set the goal of "economic neutrality" for Hungary, which must stay out of the conflicts that force it to choose between the East and the West. His goal is therefore to maintain good relations with everyone for as long as possible. This approach echoes the government’s geopolitical rhetoric and contradicts the principle of the Draghi report, which calls for more coherent regulations, while Orbán demands more sovereignty for member states.

Additional aspects of competitiveness

• In July, Hungary kicked off its presidency with a package of EU proposals to promote electric vehicles: EU citizens could receive a €4,500 subsidy to buy an electric car; households could apply for €900 to €1,500 for charging stations; a total of €15 billion would be set aside for the rollout of public charging stations by 2035; and a fleet renewal scheme would be introduced for hauliers.
• During the informal meeting of competitiveness ministers in early July, issues such as the challenges posed by the rise of the electric vehicle industry, the key elements of a new competitiveness deal and the impact of artificial intelligence on competitiveness were discussed. At the informal meeting of the General Affairs Council in September, the discussion on EU competitiveness was linked to the issue of tackling demographic challenges, another priority of the Hungarian Presidency.
• Other issues, such as EU enlargement are also assessed through the lens of competitiveness. According to Minister of National Economy Márton Nagy “the accession of the Western Balkans to the European Union would be a solution to the EU's competitiveness problem”.

2.2. Other policy areas

• Cohesion policy is another priority of the Hungarian EU presidency, also linked to competitiveness and demographic challenges, as often expressed by ministers, in particular the Minister of Regional Development, Tibor Navracsics. The government hopes that the EU summit in December will confirm that cohesion policy will continue to play a key role in improving the EU's competitiveness and demographic situation. According to the government’s position, demographic challenges affect many other areas, such as brain drain and migration.
• Regarding gender equality, the government seems to be going against the line it has been following for years, at least during the presidency. According to a speech by Zsófia Koncz, State Secretary for Families at the Ministry of Culture and Innovation, at a HU24EU conference in Budapest in September, "the Government of Hungary supports the principle of gender equality and the right of families to make their own decisions regarding their affairs and the upbringing of their children" and is "committed to promoting equality and cooperation between women and men, as well as to safeguarding physical, mental and spiritual health". Emphasizing that gender equality is a principle supported by the government shows the government's duplicitous communication, as it has for years opposed the use of the word gender, even in English-language policy documents, with its key slogan "No migration! No war! No gender!”. Surprisingly, Koncz's words were not hidden from the domestic audience, in fact, the speech was well quoted in the government-organized media.
• In response to the devastating floods in Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, HU24EU triggered the use of Integrated Political Crisis Response (IPCR) arrangements. János Bóka, Hungary's EU Affairs Minister, was presented as the active, dynamic politician in the European crisis, but as the flood situation in Hungary became more critical, Viktor Orbán soon stole the show.