In the shadow of the “Strasbourg Battle” - Hungarian EU Presidency Watch

A review of the period between 30 September – 13 October

Key findings

• Although the focus was on the political debate, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán presented the programme of the Hungarian Presidency at the plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg on 9 October, with some noteworthy announcements:
  • Romania and Bulgaria should join Schengen area this year.
  • An EU-Western Balkans Summit is needed to accelerate the EU integration of the region, including Serbia.
  • Hungary is ambitious to adopt a New European Competitiveness Deal on 8 November. Although Draghi’s report identified similar economic problems that the EU struggles with, his proposals point towards federalization, while Orban sees the solution more in strengthening the sovereignty of member states. Since the Hungarian Presidency is in dire need of a success story, the most likely scenario is that a proposal will be put on the table that can be discussed and potentially even accepted at the informal summit.
• The debate on 9 October was probably the most politically heated in the history of the presentation of the rotating presidency programme in plenary, with both the Commission President and members of the main political groups strongly criticizing the Hungarian government’s actions.
• The duplicitous tactics of the presidency are illustrated by the fact that it tries to maintain its role as an honest broker at the policy level, with lower-level ministry leaders, officials and experts working hard to achieve results, while at the political level, the top leadership seeks to troll and clash with the European mainstream, including the Commission and most member state governments.
• It is highly unlikely that Hungary will succeed in its desire to withdraw from the EU's pact on migration and asylum, despite the announcement by EU Affairs Minister János Bóka on X.
• Domestically, the Presidency is not a high priority for the government to spend significant amounts of money on social media promotion. While PM Orbán’s Facebook page has produced a 20-episode video series about his victory in the "Strasbourg Battle", only a few government actors ran political ads about the Presidency, or using the hashtag #HU24EU or other EU-focused ads, for a negligible amount of a few hundred euros.

The political dimensions

Political debate in Strasbourg

On 9 October, midway through Budapest’s six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, it was finally PM Viktor Orbán’s turn to present his priorities at the European Parliament’s plenary session in Strasbourg. The day before he held a rare press conference.

1. The prime minister uses EU forums to present himself as a global political actor. Viktor Orbán has long been selective about the questions he is willing to answer, so it is quite an event when he makes himself available to his critics at length. Now he has taken to the stage for two days in a row, seemingly in an open debate with the media and MEPs. In reality, he has been selective in the questions and points he has answered. By dominating the European public for two days, the Prime Minister has taken another step towards appearing as an important international political player. This was also the case at the extraordinary EU summit on 1 February and during his diplomatic tour at the beginning of July. He also presented the Presidency programme as if he were setting the direction, whereas the Presidency essentially has a coordinating role.

• The debate on 9 October – which should have taken place in July, but was postponed due to PM Orbán’s diplomatic tour, which he called a “peace mission” – was probably the most politically heated in the history of the presentation of the rotating presidency programme in plenary. One of the most surprising elements was the eloquent speech of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, criticizing the Hungarian government and hardly mentioning the EU Presidency programme. She stressed that only the Hungarian government is against the mainstream and expressed concerns, for example, about the human traffickers released from Hungarian prisons by the government due to alleged capacity problems, or about Hungarian-Russian relations and the extension of the National Card Program for citizens of Russia and Belarus, which offers a two-year residence permit to persons from certain countries working in Hungary. EPP leader Manfred Weber criticized Orbán for his pro-Russian and overall anti-EU stance and expressed his expectations for Orbán's election defeat by Péter Magyar in 2026.
• The duplicitous tactics of the presidency is illustrated by the fact that, while it tries to maintain its role as an honest broker at the policy level, with lower-level ministry leaders, officials and experts working hard to achieve results, at the political level, the top leadership seeks to troll and clash with the European mainstream, including the European Commission and most member states governments. While the professional and administrative activities of the presidency are progressing, the PM is deliberately looking for symbolic opportunities to steal the show, to openly criticize his real or perceived opponents, to highlight the EU’s failures, especially in the migration policy and in relation to Russia and Ukraine, as well as the need for peace. Part of the game was the PM's seemingly defensive stance, saying he wanted to discuss the presidency programme, but was forced to respond to the "untrue" accusations, while clearly preparing for a political debate.
• Both Viktor Orbán and Péter Magyar tried to make the most of the first formal meeting between them – the latter seems to have won. Orbán's social media interpreted the debate in the EP as a fight and posted multiple content including parts of the debate with mostly Ursula von der Leyen and Manfred Weber. Péter Magyar squeezed almost all his political accusations into the five minutes he had in the EP, while Viktor Orbán tried to expose his political opponent as a public criminal who only took up his mandate to hide behind his immunity. All this was predictable, but Magyar surprised the PM by stepping up to his desk and extending his hand to the seated Orbán. Along with others this photo – and the rather controversial follow-up campaign of both sides – put Péter Magyar in the role of the challenger.
• Relations with autocratic regimes remain a sharp divide between the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Patriots for Europe groups. While some ECR MEPs, in agreement with the Hungarian prime minister, criticized the EC and expressed support for many of the Hungarian presidency's goals, the group's vice-president sharply criticized foreign policy, saying Orbán was unaware of the risks of the "chaos quartet," an alliance of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. MEPs from the Patriots and Europe of Sovereign Nations group defended Orbán and his idea of a decentralized EU, as well as his diplomatic tour in July, which the Hungarian government calls a "peace mission".
• The "national sovereignty" card is losing its credibility after Spain’s far-right Vox party's funding from Hungary was leaked. Spain's far-right Vox party received 2 million in loans from banks close to Viktor Orbán, El País reported in early October. The source of the funds, which were used to finance the party's campaigns in the 2023 local and national elections, was not disclosed in campaign finance filings - a Vox spokesperson later confirmed that the lenders were Hungarian banks. Vox had been part of the ECR group, but its MEPs were among the first to switch to Orbán's Patriots for Europe this summer. When the Prime Minister was asked about this at the press conference the day before the plenary session, he did not have a convincing answer and only tried to explain that as a politician he had nothing to do with economic actors, including state banks and their lending policies. The case is particularly embarrassing because for years the government has dismissed most criticism on the grounds of national sovereignty.

The policy dimensions

Competitiveness

• Hungary is ambitious to adopt the New European Competitiveness Deal, which includes: cutting red tape, affordable energy prices, taming "over-regulation", strengthening the single market, green industrial policy. The prime minister referred to the controversial "economic connectivity” and called the European tariff on Chinese electric vehicles "absurd" and a "use of force". (EU-members imposed tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles on October 4. In the vote, 10 EU members supported the tariffs and 5 voted against [Germany, Hungary, Malta, Slovenia, Slovakia], with 12 abstentions).
  • "Economic connectivity" clearly means that Hungary wants to further strengthen its economic ties with the East, especially with China, while the EU's goal is precisely to prevent Chinese companies from gaining access to the European market with state support. Until we see the exact text of the agreement, we will not know whether it is compatible with the Draghi report. Although the latter identified similar economic problems that the EU is struggling with, Draghi’s proposals point towards federalization, while Orban sees the solution more in strengthening the sovereignty of member states. With the Hungarian presidency in desperate need of a success story, the most likely scenario is that a proposal will be put on the table that can be accepted by all parties involved.
  • Meanwhile, the third meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council under the Hungarian Presidency took place on 8th October in Luxembourg. According to the host, Mihály Varga, the event brought us closer to the New European Competitiveness Pact that can get Europe's economy moving again.

 

EU accession of the Western Balkan countries (+ Schengen enlargement)

• Viktor Orbán urges an EU-West Balkans summit to accelerate the EU integration of the region. The PM stressed in Strasbourg that the EU enlargement to the Western Balkans would be unthinkable without Serbia.
• The first country to start the accession negotiations is Albania: The Committee of Permanent Representatives (Coreper II) adopted a common EU position on 11 October, opening the first cluster with Albania. These chapters on the so-called "fundamentals" show how the country is aligned with the EU in areas such as human rights, the rule of law and democratic institutions. The first intergovernmental conference took place in Luxembourg on 15 October. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced the news as a great success on his Facebook channel. Albania's progress is particularly noteworthy, given that North Macedonia's accession talks are still blocked by Sofia due to a dispute over the recognition of Bulgarian minorities. The current stalemate could be resolved after the early elections in Bulgaria on 27 October.
• Together with the leaders of six Western Balkan countries, the President of the European Commission and representatives of eight other EU member states and international organizations, Viktor Orbán attended the Berlin Process Summit in Berlin on 14 October. According to Hungarian government spokesman Zoltán Kovács, Hungary was invited to the meeting "because of its influence in the Western Balkans and its current presidency of the European Council. At last year's event in Tirana, Albania, Hungary was represented by then-President Katalin Novák. At this year's summit, the Prime Ministers of the six Western Balkan countries signed the Declaration of Support for the Common Regional Market Action Plan 2025-2028, as well as the Agreement on Access to Higher Education and Admission to Higher Studies in the Western Balkans. They also welcomed the nine new agreements recently adopted by the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) Joint Committee. The Western Balkans Summits, under the brand of the Berlin Process, have been held annually since 2014.
• + Romania and Bulgaria should join Schengen area this year. Orbán is pushing for a regular summit of the heads of state and government of the Schengen area, similar to the euro summits of the eurozone members.

Migration

• Hungary to opt out of EU asylum and migration acquis? EU Affairs Minister János Bóka announced on X that Hungary has requested an opt-out from the EU asylum and migration acquis. After the Netherlands, Hungary is the second country to apply for an opt-out. Bóka stressed that Hungary remains committed to the Schengen area.
• Kinga Gál shares Hungary's view on migration ahead of next week's European Council meeting. Leading Fidesz MP and Vice-President of Patriots for Europe Kinga Gál expressed in an X-video that Hungary will focus on illegal migration and the strengthening of the EU's external borders and their protection at the European Council meeting on 17-18 October, and reiterated the need for an opt-out for Hungary.
• In the European Parliament, Viktor Orbán stressed that the only solution to keep migrants out of the EU is external hotspots, and in his most controversial remarks to the European Parliament, he said that migration has brought three intolerable things to Europe: violence against women, anti-Semitism, and homophobia. Orban and his government have long been accused of fueling the latter two, while Hungary is still reluctant to ratify the Istanbul Convention.

Meanwhile, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Warsaw would temporarily suspend the right to asylum for migrants crossing the border from Belarus. This is not a request for an opt-out, but a sign of broader dissatisfaction with the migration acquis.

Overall, it is highly unlikely that the Hungarian opt-out from the acquis will be obtained, as the Dutch party was also unable to do so.

Macro-Financial Assistance to Ukraine

• Ambassadors of EU member states to the European Union have agreed on a package of macro-financial assistance (MFA) for Ukraine, but it is not yet a done deal. The assistance package includes an exceptional loan of up to 35 billion euros and a credit cooperation mechanism to help Ukraine repay loans of up to 45 billion euros, the Hungarian presidency announced on 9 October. In order to ensure that the MFA reaches Ukraine as soon as possible, Member States agreed that if the EP adopts the EC proposal without amendments later in October, the Council will also agree to adopt the text without amendments. However, according to Politico. the loan is not a done deal. "If Brussels and Washington jointly underwrite the 35 billion euro loan, a re-elected Donald Trump would be committed to servicing it for years. But if the loan is approved without the US, he would have no such obligation." In addition, EU sanctions on the seizure of Russian assets must be renewed unanimously each year. The current US administration fears that this could be blocked by any EU member state, so it would be extended to three years instead of the usual one. The Hungarian counterpart wants to wait with the extension until after the US elections. As for the MFA, the Hungarian government's position is more ambiguous and will most likely be developed at the EU summit on 17-18 October.

Single market

• Hungarian Minister for EU Affairs János Bóka and President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola have signed legislation introducing new provisions in the area of the internal market and market surveillance, in order to strengthen the EU's ability to respond to market emergencies. Thus, in addition to the sovereign economic policy narrative at Member State level, a step forward has also been made in the single market.

Food waste

• Hungary is committed to significantly reducing food waste at every level of the supply chain, said István Nagy, Hungarian Minister of Agriculture, at a Budapest conference on preventing food waste held in Budapest. Senior officials from the EU Member States and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) gathered to deliver presentations and participate in roundtable discussions on preventing food waste. The goal is to halve household food waste in Hungary by 2030 in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). From 2016 to 2022, total household food waste in Hungary decreased by 12.1%, while avoidable food waste, the category that represents actual waste, dropped by 27.6%. According to the minister, “this is a remarkable achievement that has attracted attention across Europe. The European Commission now recommends Hungary's program as a best practice model,” adding that food waste remains a major challenge to the efficiency of the European Union's food supply chain.

Paid political advertising on the Presidency and other EU issues on Meta and Google

• Between 30 September and 13 October, government actors ran political ads on Meta and Google mainly about the debate in the EP to strengthen the domestic image of Viktor Orbán and weaken the perception of Péter Magyar in Brussels and Strasbourg. Specifically, there were hardly any political ads about the presidency. The amount spent on the ad is far less than the amount spent on flood prevention ads in September, indicating that the presidency is not a high priority for the government to spend large sums of money on social media promotion.
• The government has launched an intensive domestic political advertising campaign on social media in connection with Viktor Orbán's speech in the European Parliament. The prime minister's Facebook page has launched a 20-episode video series on the "Strasbourg battle", as it is called in the advert. They contain only the prime minister's reactions to the debates, not the criticism he received. At the end of the short films, Viktor Orbán is presented as the winner of the debates, having won by KO. The ads are currently running (15 October), and according to the available aggregate figures, Fidesz, which financed the ads, spent 10,700 euros on them between 10 and 13 October. In addition, only a few government actors ran political ads about the presidency or using the hashtag #HU24EU or other EU-focused ads for a negligible amount of a few hundred euros.
• On Google, Hungarian government actors have advertised abroad only once. One English language video about the theft case of Peter Magyar ran between 8 and 9 October, timed to the EP speech of Viktor Orbán. The advertisement appeared 700-800 thousand times for people in Brussels and Strasbourg. Fidesz spent a total of 6-7 thousand euros on the ad.
• Domestically, only the Prime Minister's Cabinet Office advertised on Google. The advertisement was related to the protection works during the recent Danube floods and was last shown on 1 October.
• There was no advertising content focused on the presidency or other content about the EU.
• Social media plays a very important role in government communication, and the bigger picture helps to understand all the above data. During the election campaign (between 1 January and 15 June 2024), the pro-Fidesz camp spent a total of 5.4 million euros on advertising on Meta and Google (while all 15 opposition parties and their associated media spent a quarter of this amount). It's not just the domestic audience to which Fidesz spreads its message. In the fall of 2023. advertising campaign on Google to promote a video on migration in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Austria, Belgium, Germany and Italy.

What to expect

• 17-18 October: European Council summit in Brussels - The main topics are: the latest developments in Russia's war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and European competitiveness. The Middle East conflict is even more divisive among EU leaders than Ukraine. It is likely that EU leaders will not be able to agree to the conclusions. EU leaders will also exchange initial views on Mario Draghi's report and review progress on the new European Competitiveness Pact ahead of the informal meeting in Budapest on 8 November.
• 17-18 October: Informal meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) in Budapest - This meeting will provide a platform for EU Trade Ministers to hold high-level discussions on critical issues, including the European Union's trade relations with ASEAN countries and EU-China trade relations.
• October 21-24: European Parliament Plenary in Strasbourg
• October 28: EU-Western Balkans Ministerial Forum in Montenegro
• 7 November: European Political Community (EPC) summit + 8 November: Informal meeting of EU Heads of State or Government in Budapest – After several countries boycotted various meetings of the Hungarian EU presidency, the EPC summit promises to be an important prestige event. Although there are indications that not all Baltic or Nordic countries will participate, the Hungarian side is working to prevent this. Diplomatically, it would be important for the Hungarian government to show that it is hosting a pan-European event with the highest level of participation. As with the so-called "peace mission" in early July and the recent plenary debate at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Viktor Orbán may want to use the EPC and the informal EU summit to troll and clash with the EU mainstream and present himself as a leading figure in geopolitics, especially as these events will take place just days after the US presidential election. Depending on the outcome of the US vote, we can expect some symbolic political actions from PM Orbán at these events, such as inviting Donald Trump to the event if he is elected US president, at least virtually.

 

Please find our Hungarian EU Presidency Watch of the first three months (July – September 2024) here.