Gearing up for the big show amid a "peace mission" 2.0 and new levels of anti-EU rhetoric – Hungarian EU Presidency Watch

A review of the period between 14 – 27 October (Links to our previous reports on the Hungarian EU Presidency can be found at the bottom of this page.)

Key findings and events to watch

• After Georgia's highly controversial parliamentary elections, Viktor Orbán was not only the first to congratulate the ruling party even before the vote count was complete, but he also arrived in the country immediately for a two-day visit. The European Commission, the EU’S High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and fifteen EU affairs ministers emphasized that Orbán did not represent the EU's position on the Georgian elections. The whole script is very similar to the Hungarian prime minister's diplomatic tour in July, which he called a "peace mission".
• Only Hungary and Malta did not vote in the Council of the European Union to support Ukraine with a 35-billion-euro loan from EU member states. In the European Parliament, neither Fidesz (Patriots for Europe, PfE) nor TISZA (European People’s Party, EPP) MEPs voted for it: Fidesz MEPs did not vote, TISZA MEPs abstained. The law was passed anyway.
  • Poland has signaled that sanctions against Russia will be revived once it takes over the presidency from Hungary.
• Orbán’s anti-EU rhetoric reached a new level with his speech on the national holiday commemorating the 1956 revolution, when he accused “Brussels” of preparing a coup d’etat against his government and said that they had already identified the ideal candidate for a "puppet government". The accusation is particularly bizarre coming from the prime minister of a country holding the EU presidency.
  • A 6-day social media campaign, including Orbán’s Facebook page, amplified these messages, spending EUR 23-25 thousand on it.
• Following the opening of accession talks with Albania, some progress towards EU integration has been made in the Western Balkans. At least on this issue, the EC president and the Hungarian prime minister seem to be on the same page.

Key events to watch

• The highlights of the Hungarian EU presidency: 1) the European Political Community (EPC) summit on 7 November and 2) the Informal meeting of EU Heads of State or Government on 8 November in Budapest.
• Viktor Orbán is likely to use these opportunities, especially the EPC, to present himself as a key actor on the international stage and to use the limelight to clash with the mainstream and emphasize his political messages and to make gestures to his ideological allies.
• While EU leaders are likely to attend the summits, there is a small chance that some, especially from the Nordic and Baltic countries, may decide to skip the informal European Council meeting as a symbolic protest.

Contents

• 1. The political dimensions: “Peace mission” 2.0 to Georgia and a new level of anti-EU rhetoric
  • 1.1 Orbán’s handling of Georgia’s controversial elections replay the familiar scenes of the July “peace mission”
  • 1.2 New level of anti-EU rhetoric on national holiday commemorating the 1956 revolution
  • 1.3 Framing the European Council meeting on 17 October as “three battles”
  • 1.4 First ever official EU-Gulf meeting
• 2. The policy dimensions: Focus on Western Balkans, migration, Ukraine and competitiveness
  • 2.1 EU Integration of the Western Balkans
  • 2.2 Migration: No milestone at the official European Council (EUCO) meeting on 17 October
  • 2.3 Ukraine: limited enthusiasm for Zelenskyy’s “victory plan”, loan approved, further sanctions to be revived by Polish presidency
  • 2.4 Competitiveness
  • 2.5 26 agriculture ministers provided guidelines to the Commission
• 3. Paid political advertising on the Presidency and other EU issues on Meta and Google (14 – 27 October)
• 4. What to watch

1. The political dimensions: “Peace mission” 2.0 to Georgia and a new level of anti-EU rhetoric

1.1 Orbán’s handling of Georgia’s controversial elections replay the familiar scenes of the July “peace mission”

• After Georgia’s parliamentary elections on 26 October, Viktor Orbán was not only the first to congratulate the ruling party, which has been in power for 12 years (the vote count had not even been completed at the time), but he also arrived in the South Caucasus country on 28 October for a two-day visit. The PM congratulated the party for not letting Georgia become “a second Ukraine.” The fact that Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó, Minister for National Economy Márton Nagy and Minister of Finance Mihály Varga also accompanied Orbán to Tbilisi demonstrates that they had much more to do than offer congratulations.
• The visit once again highlighted the populist anti-EU rhetoric of the Hungarian government, which is highly unusual for an EU presidency. FM Péter Szijjártó rejected the "usual chorus of critics" and their concept of democracy “dictated from Brussels”, adding: “For the liberal mainstream, it seems that democracy only exists when their preferred party wins. (…) Our duty remains not to please Brussels but to fulfill the will of our own people”. He stressed that they will “continue to work closely with Georgia to strengthen relations and support their European integration”.
• Reports so far suggest that neither the election campaign in Georgia nor the events on election day meet democratic standards, confirmed European Commission spokesperson Nassrabi Nabila - referring to the statement of High Representative Josep Borrell and the report of the OSCE International Election Observation Mission. Both Nabila and Borrell stressed that Orbán does not represent the EU's position on the Georgian elections. The whole script is very similar to the Hungarian prime minister's July diplomatic tour which he called a "peace mission.
• EU ministers from 15 countries expressed their concerns in a joint statement: “The violations of electoral integrity are incompatible with the standards expected from a candidate to the European Union. They are a betrayal of the Georgian people’s legitimate European aspiration. Upholding the rule of law and free and fair elections is integral to any progress on Georgia’s EU path. We criticize Prime Minister Orban’s premature visit to Georgia. He does not speak on behalf of the EU.”

1.2 New level of anti-EU rhetoric on national holiday commemorating the 1956 revolution

• In his speech on 23 October, Hungary's national holiday, Viktor Orbán referred to Brussels as the "center of an empire", similar to Moscow during the USSR. He added that Brussels has already identified the ideal candidate for this "puppet government" and wants to topple the Hungarian government. The government's rhetoric has been comparing the EU to the Soviet Union for at least ten years, but the idea that the EU is planning a coup against Hungary is new. The accusation is particularly bizarre coming from the EU presidency.
• Meanwhile, EP President Roberta Metsola gave a speech regarding 23 October in the EP. Metsola emphasized that the fight for democracy and freedom should remain a value forever and that the EP will not leave anyone alone on these issues. The growing personal conflict between Orbán and the EPP, especially Péter Magyar, was most likely the reason for the commemoration of the 1956 Hungarian revolution. The opposition leader also gave a speech at the demonstration he organized in Budapest.

1.3 Framing the European Council meeting on 17 October as “three battles”

• Although the meeting of the European Council (EUCO) on 17 October was not expected to be politically significant, Viktor Orbán presented it to the Hungarian public as the scene of an important, ongoing struggle in which the country's interests are being fiercely defended. In addition, the leaders of the Patriots for Europe group took the opportunity to meet for their first summit to discuss the organisation of the party family.
• PM Orbán described the European Council meeting (EUCO) to the Hungarian audience as “three battles”: 1) the battle for peace; 2) the battle over migration; and 3) the battle against certain economic measures.
  • Concerning Ukraine, on the occassion of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's presentation to EU leaders of his so-called "Victory Plan", which PM Orbán described as "more than frightening", he stressed the need for a strategy for peace and announced that he would urge the German Chancellor and the French President to start negotiations "with the Russians" on behalf of the EU as soon as possible.
  • Concerning migration, PM Orbán explained that “more of us [in the EUCO] want to change the migration rules”, and that "Hungary is being punished for protecting the EU's external borders”, but “more and more EU states are recognizing that there is a migration crisis and that change is needed."
  • Concerning economy, he said that “bureaucrats” wanted to push through economic measures that would "force Hungarian families to the ground", such as tax increase, changing the pension system and abolishing Hungary’s cap on utility prices as well as the 13th monthly pension. He announced to defend the key elements of Hungary’s “new economic policy that protect families”.
• Orbán’s “three battles” agenda has not caused much of a stir – apart from being seen as extremely lonely during the public opening of the EU summit.
• + On the eve of the EU summit, the Patriots for Europe group held its first ever summit, attended by member parties and prominent politicians such as Geert Wilders, Viktor Orbán, Marine Le Pen and Andrej Babis. While they took the opportunity to criticize the EU's migration policy and agreed to allow member states to opt out or suspend the application of EU migration policies that violate their national security or sovereignty, the main focus of the meeting was to organize the party family and implement the plan to strengthen its support, according to Viktor Orbán.

For the policy dimensions of the 17 October EUCO, see the relevant chapter below.

1.4 First ever official EU-Gulf meeting

• Viktor Orbán's political director, Balázs Orbán (no relation) expressed his positive feelings about the first EU-Gulf summit on 16 October, which he described as a success of HU24EU. Cooperation with the Gulf countries is crucial for both Hungary and the EU, as it involves important relations in the fields of energy, transport and finance.
• Despite the fact that the summit did not produce any significant results, its accomplishment is noteworthy. The most talked-about moment of the event was the arrival in Brussels of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, previously persona non grata in the West for the suspected 2018 death of U.S.-based writer Jamal Khashoggi.

2. The policy dimensions: Focus on Western Balkans, migration, Ukraine and competitiveness

2.1 EU Integration of the Western Balkans

Following the opening of accession talks with Albania, there has been some progress towards EU integration in the Western Balkans.

• On 27 October, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen concluded a four-day trip to the Western Balkans, where she met with the leaders of Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro in six capitals. The President stressed that enlargement will be at the top of her agenda for the next five years and praised the commitment and efforts made on the road to EU membership. At least when it comes to EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, the EC president and the Hungarian prime minister seem to be on the same page. While most Western European countries support the enlargement, they stress that the EU can only accept strong democracies to ensure that democratic values are not weakened by enlargement.
• Viktor Orbán met with Montenegrin PM Milojko Spajic in Budapest on 24 October. According to Orbán, although Montenegro is one of the most prepared countries in the region, no chapter has been closed in the last seven years. He believes that the EU has ignored enlargement with the Western Balkans, but the Hungarian EU presidency has promised to give a new impetus to enlargement. According to him, four negotiating chapters will be closed in December, which he considers a significant progress.
• The Bosnian prime minister also visited Hungary and held talks with FM Szijjártó, discussing issues such as EU integration and economic cooperation. In his Facebook post, Szijjártó struck an unusually pro-European tone: "The stability, peace and tranquility of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a key issue for the entire region, and European integration is the best way to achieve this."
  • While Péter Szijjártó often talks about the Hungarian presidency's enlargement vision and predicts progress for all the countries of the Western Balkans, he never mentions Kosovo. The reason for this is not only Serbia, Hungary's close ally in the region, but also the fact that five EU countries - Spain, Slovakia, Cyprus, Romania and Greece - do not recognize Kosovo's independence.
• Viktor Orbán attended the 10th Berlin Process Summit. The aim of the forum is to strengthen cooperation between the countries of the Western Balkans region, maintain the momentum of the integration process and counter growing Euroscepticism in the region, while promoting EU enlargement. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosted the event, which was attended by the leaders of six Western Balkan countries.
• According to Hungary's Permanent Representative to the EU Bálint Ódor, one of the main goals of the Hungarian presidency is the EU integration of the Western Balkans. They want to realize the New Growth Plan of the Western Balkans, which would mean an additional financial source of 6 billion euros for the region. In the remaining 11 weeks, the presidency will also work on the implementation of the Western Balkans Summit.

2.2 Migration: No milestone at the official European Council (EUCO) meeting on 17 October

• Originally scheduled for two days, the last official European Council meeting under the presidency of Charles Michel lasted only one day. This suggests that the 17 October event was of modest importance.
• The EUCO discussed migration in great detail, six aspects dominated the topic: 1) Returns; 2) Cooperation with countries of origin and transit; 3) Instrumentalization of migration; 4) Opt-outs; 5) Accelerating implementation; 6) Innovative measures. EU leaders called for “new ways to prevent and counter irregular migration [to] be considered, in line with EU and international law”. Roberta Metsola called for the swift implementation of the EU Pact on Migration and an urgent increase in the return rate of failed asylum seekers.
• The problem around migration stems from the fact that migration is currently ex-lex in the EU. The new pact on migration will not enter into force for almost two years, and the legislator expects it to solve the two biggest problems: 1) illegal border crossings and 2) internal movements. However, it will not resolve the situation of those who are now illegally on EU territory, even if they already have a removal order. Successive elections that have resulted in far-right and/or populist gains have put the mainstream parties in a bind, and this will not change with the German elections next year, on the contrary.
• It was therefore decided that the European Commission should be called upon by the leaders of the member states to legislate, and the term "innovative solutions" was coined to refer to external hotspots. The new Commission will take office in December, and the first 100 days of legislative work will be focused on developing this, but it may well come significantly earlier, and we may have more details at the December summit.
• Although there is a lot of pressure from member states, it will be difficult to convince the EP to set up external hotspots. Even the European Commission rejected it a few years ago, saying that the EU could not send armed guards to a camp in a third country. There is a good chance that the EU will want to involve the UN in this work, which also means a kind of credibility.

2.3 Ukraine: Limited enthusiasm for Zelenskyy’s “victory plan”, loan approved, further sanctions to be revived by Polish presidency

• At the EUCO on 17 October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his “victory plan”, which was met with moderate enthusiasm, and was not even mentioned as such in the summit conclusions (instead, the document uses the phrase "Ukraine’s Peace Formula"). Regarding support for Ukraine’s current and future military, budgetary and reconstruction needs, the EUCO underlined the “importance of living up to the commitment made at the G7 Apulia Summit to provide, together with G7 partners, EUR 45 billion” to Ukraine.
• The 35 billion euro loan from EU member states to Ukraine was approved by the Council of the European Union on October 23 by the required qualified majority, with only Hungary and Malta abstaining.
• The day before, Fidesz (PfE) MEPs did not participate in the vote on the loan in the European Parliament. MEPs of the Tisza Party (EPP), the main opposition of Fidesz, abstained and the MEP of the far-right Our Homeland party (Europe of Sovereign Nations, ESN) voted against. Of the 21 Hungarian MEPs, only the 2 MEPs from the Democratic Coalition (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, S&D) voted in favor. The EP approved the new macro-financial assistance to Ukraine by 518 votes to 56, with 61 abstentions.
• Poland aims to revive sanctions against Russia during its EU presidency from January 2025. The Polish presidency will seek to introduce further sanctions against Russia, particularly in the area of Russian fuel flowing into the EU. Warsaw has signaled to shift into a higher gear after Hungary, due to its close ties with Russia, did not consider sanctions to be a priority of its presidency in this regard.

2.4 Competitiveness

• The issue, along with energy prices, was discussed at the 17 October EUCO meeting, according to the meeting's conclusions.
• An international conference of the Hungarian Public Procurement Authority was held in the framework of the Hungarian Presidency. The conference covered topics such as increasing competition and reducing administrative burdens on public procurement. It is hard not to be reminded that Hungary is currently under EU investigation for its opaque public procurement practices.
• FM Szijjártó chaired the Foreign Affairs Council. He expressed concern about the EU's increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. He drew attention to the final vote on the tariffs, where there was no clear majority for or against. (The European Commission concluded its anti-subsidy investigation on 29 October by imposing definitive countervailing duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China for a period of five years from 30 October.)
• Ministers of member states met in Luxembourg as part of the first Energy Council under the Hungarian presidency. The main topic of the event was based on the Draghi report: tackling high energy prices. Hungarian State Secretary for Energy and Climate Policy Attila Steiner stressed the importance of increasing the competitiveness of European industry, reducing energy prices and ensuring security of supply. In addition, the Commission presented its action plan to increase EU energy assistance to Ukraine while ensuring security of supply in the EU.

2.5 26 agriculture ministers provided guidelines to the Commission

• On his Facebook page before the Council meeting, Hungarian Agriculture Minister István Nagy launched a serious attack on "Brussels", saying that they want to take away part of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments from farmers after 2027 and impose unrealistic burdens on them.
• This was probably a prime example of the Hungarian government's populist tactic of launching an offensive in a case that either does not exist in reality or has already been solved, in order to achieve a symbolic victory. In this case, the preparatory working groups had already developed a common position which was accepted by the Council and which strongly criticized the EC proposal. A resolution passed by 26 ministers provides guidelines to the Commission. During the Belgian Presidency, a similar resolution was enacted, but the Romanian government rejected it and continues to do so. This discussion is a component of the budget planning for after 2027.

3. Paid political advertising on the Presidency and other EU issues on Meta and Google (14 – 27 October)

• On Viktor Orbán's Facebook page, the so-called "Strasbourg battle" series of advertisements continued, which was discussed in detail in the previous report. The campaign, which consisted of a series of 20 videos, ended before the 23 October holiday. During the two-week campaign (October 10-22), Fidesz, the financier of the ads, spent 40-48 thousand EUR on them on Facebook. (Instead of an exact amount, Meta Ad Library contains only a range when it comes to spending on each ad. Therefore, we can only give an estimate of the total spend. In this case, the total amount spent on ads is between 40 and 48 thousand EUR).
• On 23 October, a new advertising campaign with anti-EU messages was launched on the Prime Minister's Facebook page. The ads, which ran for six days, include short videos and images of Orban's speech at the commemoration in front of a selection of committed Fidesz voters. The quoted phrases and narratives highlight the EU's imperial ambitions to turn Hungary into a puppet state, a vassal of Brussels. This includes that Brussels wants to get rid of the current Hungarian government and replace it with puppets. In addition, the inevitable slogans of recent years appeared: they are pushing us into war, they are forcing migrants on us, and they want to impose the gender lobby on us. The campaign on Facebook cost 23-25 thousand euros, the advertisements were financed by Fidesz.
• Both campaigns ran on Google between October 16 and 27. Fidesz spent a total of EUR 27.5 thousand on the video ads (using two advertiser accounts: 1, 2).
• EU Affairs Minister János Bóka launched two video ads on his Facebook page during the reporting period. One of them covered the PM's speech in the EP, starting with the slogan: "We kicked the door of the European Parliament, we can even occupy Brussels from Strasbourg". The other ad covered a meeting of the General Affairs Council. A total of about EUR 1,300 was spent on the two ads, which were financed by the Hungarian government.
• Social media plays a very important role in government communication, and the bigger picture helps to understand all the above data. During the election campaign (between 1 January and 15 June 2024), the pro-Fidesz camp spent a total of 5.4 million euros on advertising on Meta and Google (while all 15 opposition parties and their associated media spent a quarter of this amount).

4. What to watch

• 7 November: European Political Community (EPC) summit & 8 November: Informal meeting of EU Heads of State or Government in Budapest. The EPC summit is the most prestigious event of the Hungarian presidency, where European (including non-EU) leaders will discuss security challenges, migration, and “connectivity” in terms of energy, transport, IT, and global trade.
  • Viktor Orbán is likely to use these opportunities, especially the EPC, to present himself and his government as a key actor on the international stage and to use the limelight to clash with the mainstream and emphasize his political messages, especially on peace, migration, the EU’s economic problems and other failures of "Brussels" and the Western “liberal elites” to meet the needs and concerns of the people.
  • As a strong critic of decoupling and derisking policies, PM Orbán is also likely to boast about Hungary's economic model of "connectivity" and "economic neutrality" and present it as a role model, as well as criticize the EU for launching "trade wars" against China and Russia.
  • Moreover, as seen during his so-called "peace mission" in July and his recent visit to Georgia, PM Orbán is also likely to make gestures to his ideological allies and even provide them with practical support. Depending on the outcome of the U.S. election, even Donald Trump may be a virtual guest at the EPC.
  • Viktor Orbán is also likely to defend his Georgian ally, the ruling Georgian Dream party, against criticism from other EU leaders, as European Council President Charles Michel announced that he would put the disputed elections in Georgia on the agenda of the informal EU summit and called for a swift and transparent investigation into alleged irregularities.
  • While leaders are likely to attend the summits, there is a small chance that some Nordic and Baltic countries may decide to skip the informal European Council meeting as a symbolic protest against PM Orbán’s controversial diplomatic moves and anti-EU rhetoric.
  • At the informal European Council, EU leaders are expected to sign the Budapest Declaration on the New European Competitiveness Deal.
• November 4-12: Hearings of the Commissioners-designate: The candidates have cleared the first hurdle, none of them having been found to have a conflict of interest. Answers to written questions have been sent and the oral hearings will follow. In an optimal scenario, after the hearings - taking into account possible additional hearings and even a new candidate in case of ineligibility - the European Parliament will vote on the College of Commissioners at the end of November, which can start its work in December.
  • One or two commissioners may fall during the hearings. The Romanian and Maltese commissioners have the best chance of doing so. Raffaello Fitto, the Italian candidate, must be prepared for a tough hearing, as some in the EP are critical that Ursula von der Leyen gave him the position of Vice-President of the Commission in addition to an important portfolio, allegedly for political reasons to appease Georgia Meloni. It will also be difficult for Olivér Várhelyi, who due to his previous conflicts with the EP ("How many idiots are there?", his leniency in the Western Balkans, regarding Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina) can expect additional (among others "Orbán"-related) questions, possibly another hearing, but he will probably be suitable.

 

Our previous report on the Hungarian EU Presidency can be found here:

• In the shadow of the “Strasbourg Battle” – Hungarian EU Presidency Watch (30 September – 13 October)
• Prioritizing politics over policy? – Hungarian EU Presidency Watch (July – September)
• Trolling to weaken the EU while winking at Trump: the first week of Hungary's rotating EU presidency (July 2024)