The final act: new peace offensive, budget passed, Schengen to be extended – Hungarian EU Presidency Watch

A review of the period between 25 November – 8 December. (Our previous reports on the Hungarian EU Presidency are available here.)

Key findings and events to watch

• PM Orbán has launched a new peace mission to mark the end of Hungary’s EU presidency, completing the move he began in July. Discussions with Pope Francis, Giorgia Meloni, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan aimed to elevate Orbán’s position and serve as a reference point for him later, proving his role in preparing the ground for peace talks.
• Poland will take over the EU presidency from Hungary on 1 January 2025, with a markedly different approach. On the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, Poland is preparing to introduce a substantial sanctions package.
• The EU 2025 budget has been adopted, but Fidesz MEPs in the European Parliament voted against both their own government's position in the Council and the budget, which was communicated as a success story of the Hungarian Presidency.
• Ursula von der Leyen plans to develop a new mechanism for distributing EU funds, bypassing national governments. The aim of the new "intelligent conditionality system" is to ensure that funds reach the real beneficiaries, even if the government of a given country does not meet the rule of law requirements.
• The Hungarian government has submitted a draft law to the European Commission to ensure continued EU funding for the Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe programs at 21 universities managed by public interest foundations (trust funds). However, several factors make it unlikely that the bill will solve the problems.
• The European Commission’s European Semester Autumn Package presents the Commission's recommendations for multi-year net expenditure paths to correct the excessive deficit for eight Member States, including Hungary. The main recommendation for Hungary is that the growth rate of total expenditure should not exceed 3.9% in 2025, 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. However, the Hungarian government argues that this rate could be as high as 6.1 percent. The EC was unable to resolve this discrepancy on the basis of the Hungarian plans and sent them back to the Hungarian government for revision.
• During this period, as in the previous one, there were no political advertising campaigns by Hungarian government actors on Meta or Google related to the Presidency or the EU in general.

Key events to watch

• 12-13 December: Justice and Home Affairs Council to set the date for Bulgaria and Romania to become a full member of the border-free Schengen Area and reach a ‘general approach’ on setting minimum rules to prevent the smuggling of migrants.
• 16 December: Foreign Affairs Council to discuss Russia's aggression against Ukraine and developments in the Middle East and Georgia.
• 17 December: General Affairs Council to adopt conclusions on EU enlargement.
• 18 December: EU-Western Balkans summit to discuss the implementation of the Growth Plan, regional integration efforts and geopolitical challenges.
• 19-20 December: European Council to discuss Ukraine, the EU's global role, the future of the transatlantic alliance, relations with the UK and migration.

 Contents

•  1. The political dimensions: Orbán’s final peace offensive remains unchallenged as EU awaits relief from Polish presidency
  • 1.1 PM Orbán has launched a new ‘peace mission’ as Hungarian presidency draws to a close
  • 1.2 Antonio Costa stands for Ukraine
  • 1.3 Scathing opinions on the Hungarian Presidency
  • 1.4 Polish Presidency: A shift in role and priorities
  • 1.5 Ursula von der Leyen plans to develop a new mechanism for distributing EU funds, bypassing national governments
  • 1.6 No breakthrough on Erasmus
  • 1.7 Renew Europe, EPP, and S&D formed a long-term coalition in the European Parliament
• 2. The policy dimensions – Budgets in conflict: Hungarian plan criticized by the EC, EU plan opposed by Fidesz
  • 2.1 EU 2025 budget is passed – Fidesz MEPs voted against the Hungarian government
  • 2.2 Hungary argues the burdens of excessive deficit procedure
  • 2.3 Council adopts new laws to strengthen cybersecurity capacities in the EU
  • 2.4 Council calls for more robust efforts to help prevent cardiovascular diseases
  • 2.5 Council recommends increased protection against second-hand smoke and aerosols
  • 2.6 Council adopts negotiating position to improve road safety in the EU
• 3. Paid political advertising on the Presidency and other EU issues on Meta and Google (25 November – 8 December)
• 4. What to watch

1. The political dimensions: Orbán’s final peace offensive remains unchallenged as EU awaits relief from Polish presidency

1.1 PM Orbán has launched a new ‘peace mission’ as Hungarian presidency draws to a close

• As the Hungarian presidency is nearing to its end and Donald Trump prepares to take office on 20 January, PM Orbán has launched a ‘peace offensive’, building on his so-called ‘peace mission’ conducted immediately after the start of the presidency in the first week of July. While the July diplomatic tour drew heavy criticism from both member states and high-level EU officials such as European Council President Charles Michel, the current offensive has largely gone unchallenged, partly because this time the Hungarian PM hasn’t confused his role with the EU presidency.
• In the last 7 days, Viktor Orbán met Pope Francis, Giorgia Meloni and Donald Trump, spoke on the phone with Vladimir Putin and will visit Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 12 December.
  • On 4 December, Viktor Orbán and Pope Francis discussed the war in Ukraine, focusing on the humanitarian situation and efforts to promote peace. The Hungarian government tries to legitimize its "pro-peace" position by misleadingly emphasizing that Hungary and the Vatican share the same position on the war, calling for a ceasefire. In fact, the Pope considers it morally legitimate to supply arms to Ukraine to help it defend itself against Russian aggression.
  • On the same day, PM Meloni and PM Orbán discussed in Rome their commitment to a just and lasting peace and reconstruction in Ukraine based on the principles of the UN Charter and international law. They also discussed bilateral relations, the situation in the Middle East and illegal migration. After the meeting, PM Orbán hinted at big plans.
  • On 9 December, PM Orbán met with Donald Trump, Trump’s future national security advisor, Mike Waltz and Elon Musk in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, where they discussed the “possibilities of peace”.
  • On 11 December, Orbán has called Putin to discuss peace plans for Ukraine. The Kremlin used the opportunity to blame Kyiv for preventing the possibility of a peaceful settlement of the conflict. The two leaders also discussed energy and economic cooperation, as well as the tense situation in the Middle East region in the context of recent events in Syria.
  • In a Facebook post on 11 December, PM Orbán announced that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had clearly rejected and ruled out a Christmas ceasefire and large-scale prisoner exchange proposed by the Hungarian government.
  • On 12 December, PM Orbán will visit Turkish President Erdogan as the last stop on his ‘peace mission’.
• At the same time, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó traveled to Moscow, Washington and Valletta, presenting the tour as a "peace mission.
  • In Moscow, he tried to bolster Hungary's peace efforts by discussing the war in Ukraine with his counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. The meeting, which was recorded and the video made public, gave Lavrov ample opportunity to accuse the EU and NATO of provocation and double standards regarding the human rights of the Russian people.
  • After a NATO meeting in Brussels, he warned that Ukraine's NATO membership could risk a NATO-Russia war, even though EU leaders have already declared that Ukraine's path to the alliance is "irreversible. Szijjártó also insisted that the Ukrainian victory on the battlefield was nothing more than a deception and misleading of the people.
  • In Washington, he met with Mike Waltz to discuss geopolitical issues. He emphasized that the time to end the war between Russia and Ukraine has never been closer, supporting Fidesz's expectations that Trump would quickly end the war.
  • After talks with Lavrov at the OSCE Ministerial Council in Valletta, he reiterated the importance of maintaining open channels of communication with Russia, while other Western foreign ministers criticized the Russian foreign minister over the war in Ukraine. After meeting with Vatican ‘Foreign Minister’ Paul Richard Gallagher, Szijjártó praised the Vatican's "pro-peace" stance and its encouragement of Hungary's peace efforts.

1.2 Antonio Costa stands for Ukraine

• Antonio Costa, the new President of the European Council who took office on 1 December, emphasized during the inauguration ceremony that as European Council President, his daily mission will be to strengthen European unity. He also addressed the issue of war, stating: "We all want peace, but especially the Ukrainian people, who are the most affected. But peace cannot mean the peace of the graveyard. Peace cannot mean capitulation. Peace cannot reward aggression. Peace in Ukraine must be just. It must be lasting. And it must be based on international law."
• On his first official foreign trip, also on 1 December, Costa traveled to Kyiv with Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and Marta Kos, Commissioner for Enlargement. The three EU leaders held talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. "We came to send a clear message: we stand with Ukraine and will continue to offer our full support."

1.3 Scathing opinions on the Hungarian Presidency

At the press conferences during the late-November plenary session in Strasbourg, four European party leaders shared their opinions on the Hungarian presidency. Since none of the groups align with the Orbán government's policies, the disagreement is not surprising. However, the bluntness of the statements is noteworthy.

• Manfred Weber, President of the European People's Party: The Hungarian Prime Minister "abused his status" and merely provided another platform for his propaganda.
• Tineke Strik, Green Party, rapporteur responsible for Hungary: "It was filled with symbolism. The Hungarian presidency only placed Orbán’s priorities on the agenda and used the position for a power struggle. Pushing for Serbia's EU accession was also a provocative act. Orbán overstepped the competencies of the rotating presidency, but fortunately, only six weeks remain of it."
• Valérie Hayer, Renew Group leader: "Orbán presented a series of weak, provocative, and personally motivated decisions."
• Manon Aubry, Left group leader: Her reaction was simply to hold up a blank sheet of paper and say, "This is my opinion."

1.4 Polish Presidency: A shift in role and priorities

Poland will take over the EU presidency from Hungary on 1 January 2025, with a markedly different approach.

• On 5 December, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, alongside Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, outlined some of the priorities of the Polish Presidency. One of the main goals is to strengthen the protection of the EU's external borders. Poland wants to combat not only traditional migration, but also the use of migrants as a weapon orchestrated by Russia at the Polish border.
• On the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, Poland is preparing to introduce a substantial sanctions package that could include restrictions on the free movement of Russian diplomats and further tightening of oil and gas imports. It remains uncertain whether this package will be separate from the broader sanctions set for 24 February. Tusk has also emphasized increasing defense spending.
• Reducing energy prices to increase competitiveness will also be a key objective of the Polish presidency.
• Following domestic initiatives, Tusk also announced plans for a European-level campaign against corruption.

1.5 Ursula von der Leyen plans to develop a new mechanism for distributing EU funds, bypassing national governments

• In recent years, the European Union has introduced financial sanctions against member states that violate the rule of law, such as Hungary, which is still unable to access 9.5 billion euros in cohesion funds.
• The aim of the new "intelligent conditionality system" is to ensure that funds reach the real beneficiaries, even if the government of a given country does not meet the rule of law requirements. This measure could be particularly important for Hungary and other member states under sanctions, as the European Commission could bypass their governments when disbursing funds.
• The changes would not require legislative changes and therefore cannot be vetoed by Member States, as some of the government-controlled funds can be redirected to directly managed funds without such changes.

1.6 No breakthrough on Erasmus

• Three weeks after its approval by the Hungarian Parliament, the government submitted to the European Commission a draft law to ensure continued EU funding for the Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe programs benefiting 21 universities managed by public interest foundations (trust funds). The Commission has one month to evaluate the legislation and determine whether the boards of trustees overseeing the universities now meet the conflict-of-interest requirements or whether the conditions have been only partially or not at all fulfilled. The decision on releasing the funds will be made by the Council.
• According to previous statements by Balázs Hankó, Minister of Culture and Innovation, the Hungarian legislation diverges from the Commission’s expectations on several points. For instance, it would still permit the participation of rectors and professors on the boards while prohibiting the involvement of civil society representatives. Furthermore, the legislation will only come into effect if the Council decides to lift the restrictions. These factors cast significant doubt on the likelihood of resolving the issue successfully.
• Meanwhile, János Bóka, Minister for EU Affairs, has met with new EU Commissioners holding portfolios of particular importance for Hungary: (1) Piotr Serafin, Commissioner for Budget, Anti-Fraud and Public Administration, (2) Roxana Mînzatu, Vice-President for Social Rights and Skills, Quality Jobs and Preparedness, (3) Magnus Brunner, Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration, (4) Michael McGrath, Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, the Rule of Law and Consumer Protection.
  • According to his X post, following the meeting, Commissioner Serafin was not optimistic: “Minister for European Affairs of Hungary, Janos Boka notified amendments to the Act on Public Interest Trusts. This notification does not relate to the frozen Cohesion & RRF funds. It’s not quite what we were hoping for.”

1.7 Renew Europe, EPP, and S&D formed a long-term coalition in the European Parliament

• Among others, the pact announced by Renew caucus leader Valérie Hayer covers the migration pact, unwavering support for Ukraine, and the full use of the rule of law mechanism.
• Hungarian parties like the TISZA Party are part of the agreement, although they disagree with aspects such as mandatory resettlement of migrants and support for Ukraine.

2. The policy dimensions – Budgets in conflict: Hungarian plan criticized by the EC, EU plan opposed by Fidesz

2.1 EU 2025 budget is passed – Fidesz MEPs voted against the Hungarian government

• On 27 November, the European Parliament voted on the EU budget for 2025. A total of nearly EUR 200 billion in commitments and more than EUR 155 billion in payments were agreed. (Although the EU has a long-term seven-year budget framework, the annual budgets within these limits must be negotiated separately.)
• The Council voted two days earlier: 22 out of 27 members supported the budget (including the Hungarian government), while only five net contributor countries did not: Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland abstained, and Sweden voted against.
• In the European Parliament, 418 voted in favor, 185 against, and 67 abstained. According to the minutes, the TISZA Party (EPP) and the Democratic Coalition (S&D) supported the budget, while Fidesz (PfE) and Our Homeland (ESN) opposed it, all voting along with the majority of their respective EP groups. This is particularly noteworthy because the Fidesz MEPs went against both their own government's vote and the budget that is communicated as a success story of the Hungarian presidency.
  • According to a statement by Tamás Deutsch, the leader of the Fidesz delegation, although the Hungarian presidency deserves credit for securing the agreement, their EP group cannot accept it. They see it as a pro-war budget designed to ensure the continuation of the war in Ukraine using all EU budgetary instruments, while they want a budget focused on peace.

2.2 Hungary argues the burdens of excessive deficit procedure

• The European Semester Autumn Package of the European Commission presents the Commission's recommendations for multi-year net expenditure paths to correct the excessive deficit for eight Member States, i.e. Belgium, France, Hungary, Italy, Malta, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, which are currently subject to the excessive deficit procedure (EDP).
• For most of these Member States, the corrective paths are based on the net expenditure paths set by the Member States in their medium-term plans. This is in line with the strong emphasis on national ownership of fiscal commitments under the new economic governance framework.
• The main recommendation for Hungary is that the growth rate of total expenditure should not exceed 3.9% in 2025, 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. However, the Hungarian government argues that this rate could be as high as 6.1 percent, because Hungarian growth will be much higher than expected by Brussels. The EC was unable to resolve this discrepancy on the basis of the Hungarian plans, so it sent them back to the Hungarian government for revision.

2.3 Council adopts new laws to strengthen cybersecurity capacities in the EU

• To strengthen EU solidarity and capacities to detect, prepare for and respond to cybersecurity threats and incidents, the Council adopted two new laws that are part of the cybersecurity legislative ‘package’, namely the so-called ‘Cyber Solidarity Act’, and a targeted amendment to the Cybersecurity Act.

2.4 Council calls for more robust efforts to help prevent cardiovascular diseases

• The Council calls for more robust efforts to help prevent cardiovascular diseases, which are the leading cause of death in the European Union. In the conclusions adopted, the Council proposes a series of measures to improve cardiovascular health in the EU, focusing specifically on prevention, early detection, treatment and rehabilitation.

2.5 Council recommends increased protection against second-hand smoke and aerosols

• The Council has adopted a recommendation that will help reduce exposure to second-hand smoke and aerosols and achieve a tobacco-free generation in Europe by 2040 as set out in Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan. The adopted recommendation on smoke and aerosol-free environments encourages EU countries to extend the scope of their existing protection from exposure to second-hand smoke to key outdoor areas such as playgrounds and restaurant terraces. The new measures will also apply to emerging tobacco and related products, such as e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products.
• Interestingly, the same recommendation was rejected by a large majority in the European Parliament. This does not affect the validity of the Council's decision.

2.6 Council adopts negotiating position to improve road safety in the EU

• With a view to improving road safety in Europe, the Council adopted its negotiating position (‘general approach’) on a Commission proposal on certain driving disqualifications, which forms part of the so-called "road safety" legislative package. Under the proposal, the Member State which issued the driving license will be obliged, under certain conditions and in accordance with its own national legislation, to implement a driving disqualification imposed on a road traffic offender by another Member State where the serious road traffic offence was committed.

3. Paid political advertising on the Presidency and other EU issues on Meta and Google (25 November – 8 December)

• Similar to the previous two weeks, there were no political advertising campaigns by government actors on Meta or Google related to the Presidency or the EU in general during this period.
• A few pro-government politicians promoted events of the Hungarian presidency in a paid political advertisement with the #HU24EU logo. However, the total amount spent was very insignificant.
• In the previous report, we detailed how Megafon, a key Fidesz proxy organization that trains, coordinates, finances and promotes pro-government social media "influencers", launched a major campaign to discredit new opposition hopeful Péter Magyar. In the last 30 days they have spent EUR 151,000 on Meta and another 20,000 on Google. The campaign, which ended on 3 December, focused on Magyar, with occasional references to EU-related issues. One of them criticized Manfred Weber for allying the EPP with the left-wing political groups and for using Magyar to defeat Orbán. The other issue criticized MEPs from Magyar's TISZA party for applauding Volodymyr Zelenskyy's speech in the European Parliament while wearing pro-Ukraine T-shirts.

Social media plays a very important role in government communication, and the bigger picture helps to understand all the above data. During the election campaign (between 1 January and 15 June 2024), the pro-Fidesz camp spent EUR 5.4 million on advertising on Meta and Google (while all 15 opposition parties and their associated media spent a quarter of this amount).

4. What to watch

• 12 December: Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs)
  • Schengen – The Presidency has put on the agenda of the ministerial meeting the adoption of the Council decision setting the date for the lifting of controls on persons at the internal land borders with and between Bulgaria and Romania. The decision is expected to be adopted by the interior ministers after Austria lifted its veto on the two countries' full accession to Schengen on 9 December. Both countries have fully applied Schengen rules since 31 March 2024. Internal air and sea border controls with Bulgaria and Romania have also been lifted since that date.
• 13 December: Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice)
  • Preventing migrant smuggling – The Council plans to reach a ‘general approach’ (the Council's position based on political agreement among member states) on a proposed directive setting minimum rules to prevent the smuggling of migrants. The law would replace the current EU legal framework, which dates back to 2002. The proposal aims to bring member states' criminal laws closer together on issues such as the definition and punishment of migrant smuggling.
• 16 December: Foreign Affairs Council
  • EU foreign ministers will discuss Russia's aggression against Ukraine after an informal exchange of views with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha via videoconference. The Council will also discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and Georgia.
  • At a press conference together with Georgian Foreign Minister Maka Botchorishvili in Budapest on 10 December, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó announced that Hungary would veto possible EU sanctions against Georgian officials if necessary. He called sanctions unjustified and the idea nonsense and outrageous.
• 17 December: General Affairs Council
  • The Council will be invited to adopt conclusions on EU enlargement.
• 18 December: EU-Western Balkans summit
  • The first session will be dedicated to the implementation of the Growth Plan and regional integration efforts, as well as the possibilities for further advancing the gradual integration between the European Union and the region, while the working dinner will focus on common geopolitical challenges.
• 19-20 December: European Council
  • The central theme will be Ukraine, with President Antonio Costa's aim to "send a united and unequivocal message of support to Ukraine for a comprehensive, just and lasting peace". He has invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is expected to attend the meeting in person.
  • Leaders will hold an informal and inconclusive strategic debate on the EU's global role, including the future of the transatlantic alliance and the strengthening of relations with the UK after Brexit.
  • Migration will be back on the agenda, with a focus on speeding up deportations, for which the European Commission has promised a legislative proposal.

 

Our previous reports on the Hungarian EU Presidency can be found here:

• Proceedings against Hungary continue as Schengen deal nears for Bulgaria and Romania (11 – 24 November)
• A Volatile Unity: Hungary’s Leadership Amid Geopolitical Shifts and EU Challenges (28 October – 10 November)
• Gearing up for the big show amid a "peace mission" 2.0 and new levels of anti-EU rhetoric – Hungarian EU Presidency Watch (14 – 27 October)
• In the shadow of the “Strasbourg Battle” – Hungarian EU Presidency Watch (30 September – 13 October)
• Prioritizing politics over policy? – Hungarian EU Presidency Watch (July – September)
• Trolling to weaken the EU while winking at Trump: the first week of Hungary's rotating EU presidency (July 2024)