Political Capital in 2024
Election tsunami, EU presidency, Hunfluence, disinformation – it was clear that 2024 would be an eventful year, yet countless unexpected events kept steering it in new directions. As we have done for the past 23 years, this year too we have strived to help understand the processes unfolding around us – always with a focus on delivering value.
Elections 2024
On June 9, 2024, for the first time, European Parliament, municipal, and minority elections were held on the same day. This posed new challenges not only for the electoral bodies and political parties but also for voters. Driven by our commitment to parliamentary democracy, we have always felt it our duty to help people navigate the famously complex electoral system(s). To this end, we have created resources such as a guidebook, educational videos, and a mandate calculator.
The period leading up to and following the 2024 elections has proven unexpectedly turbulent. Our election analyses cover a wide range of topics, here are a few of our them in English:
- Hungary’s domestic politics turned upside down, but this is not the end of the Orbán regime – 1 July 2024
- Uncovering, analyzing, debunking and researching sponsored disinfo - summary – 28 June 2024
- Hungarian Citizen Election Report 2024 – 20 June 2024
- The elections swept away the established opposition, hit Fidesz, and touched the European mainstream, but the political system change has been cancelled both in Hungary and in Brussels – 13 June 2024
- We will see more friends of Putin and Xi in the new European Parliament – 6 June 2024
- A newcomer against the Orbán regime – 1 June 2024
- Will Massive State-Funded Disinformation in Hungary Give Orbán One More Win? – 22 May 2024
Our material on the 2024 elections is collected here.
Even after the elections concluded, this year brought further election-related developments. In November, the government initiated electoral system reforms, our quick analysis on the topic in Hungarian is available here.
For over a decade, the residence locations of Hungarian citizens voting by mail were unknown. Together with TASZ, we filed a public interest request, prompting the National Election Office to now publish voter registry data by actual residence.
Election disinformation
We monitored political advertisements posted on social media every two weeks between December 31, 2023, and June 15, 2024. Our Hungarian-language analysis series provided insight into the government's financial dominance in 2024 Hungary, as well as the enemy-building narratives that dominated public discourse during this period. Here are a few analyses in English:
- Fidesz & Co. flood social media with anti-Western hostile disinformation in Hungary’s election campaign, reaching EU spending records – 8 June 2024
- Fidesz's €3.2m digital ads aimed at smearing opponents – 30 May 2024
- Pro-government political advertisements are in record heights in Hungary, promoting hostile narratives against the West – 25 April 2024
The V4 During the Elections
In collaboration with Slovak, Czech, and Polish Euractiv partners, we established a regional platform ahead of the EP elections, fostering public and expert debates on EU-related topics. Additionally, we explored the shared positions and interests of the Visegrád countries in four key areas: industrial green transition, security and defense, elections and political discourse, and V4 representation in top EU positions.
EP Elections, EU Presidency
Building on previous research, Political Capital examined harmful foreign influence and the EU's response to authoritarian regimes, with a particular focus on Central Europe. We tracked the votes of Members of the European Parliament on foreign policy issues during the 2019-2024 term, analyzing the positions of national parties based on their stances on resolutions related to Russia, China, and authoritarian regimes in general.
Hungary held the EU Presidency in the second half of 2024, creating opportunities to significantly influence both policymaking and the public discourse in the EU, and more broadly on the international stage. Political Capital has been monitoring the presidency and publishing bi-weekly reports entitled Hungarian EU Presidency Watch.
- The final act: new peace offensive, budget passed, Schengen to be extended - 11 December 2024
- Proceedings against Hungary continue as Schengen deal nears for Bulgaria and Romania - 27 November 2024
- A Volatile Unity: Hungary's Leadership Amid Geopolitical Shift and EU Challenges - 13 November 2024
- Gearing up for the big show amid a "peace mission" 2.0 and new levels of anti-EU rhetoric – 30 October 2024
- In the shadow of the “Strasbourg Battle” – 16 October 2024
- Prioritizing politics over policy? – A review of the Hungarian EU Presidency’s first three months – 2 October 2024
- Trolling to weaken the EU while winking at Trump: the first week of Hungary's rotating EU presidency – 10 July 2024
Hunfluence
At Political Capital, we have been monitoring a phenomenon we call "Hunfluence" for years. This refers to efforts to create an international environment favorable to the Orbán regime, ensuring the long-term stability of its domestic system. This year, we continued to explore the topic through several brief analyses and a comprehensive study.
- Orbán Has Bet Everything on Trump, but Even If It Works Out, It Will Mainly Help Maintain the Regime
Far-right
Our institute continuously monitors and analyzes the activities of domestic and international far-right parties and organizations. We discussed the damage caused by the rapid rise of TISZA to Mi Hazánk, and after the elections, we assessed the impact of the party's below-expectations electoral success. Regarding the European Parliament elections, the key question was whether there would be an overall radical right-wing shift in Europe.
The phenomenon of hate speech and offensive speech has become common in personal interactions, political discourse, and online and offline environments. However, we do not have to accept this status quo. Instead, we must actively confront and combat it. After years of dedicated professional effort, we have developed proposals for the European Union and the Member States, law enforcement, local governments, civil society, the education system, and the media. By implementing our recommendations, prejudice can be significantly reduced, helping to create a more inclusive society.
Fake Profile Hunting
The presidental pardon scandal that broke out in early February has caused major political waves in Hungarian domestic politics. Our research in June examined the narratives circulating in public Facebook groups in the period following the scandal.
To combat fake profiles, we created a guide and an infographic for those who wish to take action against harmful content and trends, as well as for those aiming to clear up online discourse. Both materials outline methods and tools that help identify fake profiles, uncover their activities, and take action against them.
Péter Magyar often makes public appeals to his followers to spread his messages on unfriendly Facebook pages. In our research in September, we explored how successful this strategy was during the election campaign, whether other messages spread similarly, and whether the distributors were real individuals or fake profiles posing as activists.
PC Events
The 2024 Budapest Forum once again brought together key players and experts in international politics. The two-day conference was built around this year’s “super election year”; among the highlighted topics were the (then-anticipated) foreign policy implications of the U.S. presidential election and the relationship between China and Taiwan.
The Budapest Forum provided a platform for high-level professional debates on issues such as the political and economic effects of EU enlargement, the spread of populism, responses to climate change, and the impact of online filter bubbles on social polarization. This year, the Forum also included a Hungarian-language panel focusing on the relationship between art and political power.
We started the year with a conference organized in collaboration with the Taipei Representative Office in Budapest, titled Taiwanese Elections and Global Security. Experts at the roundtable discussion analyzed the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections, Taiwan’s foreign policy, China’s attempts at interference, and the broader implications for the global security environment.
In January, we organized an international conference on hate speech titled Dimensions of Hate. With the help of domestic and international experts, the conference examined the key aspects of the topic and highlighted the prevalence and complexity of the phenomenon.
At our March event on Authoritarian tendencies in the European Parliament, we presented the main findings of our research, which examined harmful foreign influence and responses to authoritarian regimes within the European Union.
In June, ahead of the European and municipal elections, we co-organized a conference with Lakmusz and the Mérték Media Analysis Workshop. Alongside experts, we brought together four mayors (from both government and opposition parties) for a roundtable discussion.
We held an online event on the European Union elections, focusing on the V4 countries, in collaboration with EURACTIV’s partners in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland. In partnership with the CEU Democracy Institute, we organized an online debate on the impact of the election results after the European elections. Additionally, we hosted a book launch in cooperation with CEU Press, the CEU Democracy Institute, and the Munk School in Toronto.
In the context of our research, we organised a roundtable discussion entitled Antisemitism in Hungary after 7 October, where we explored the impact of Hamas's terrorist acts on Hungary. Key topics included whether the situation and perception of the Jewish community in Hungary have changed, what antisemitic narratives are present, and how these have evolved since October 7.
At both our closed and public events, we examined the consequences of the super election year, with a particular focus on how the results affected the Orbán government’s international influence and the shifting dynamics of the "illiberal international.
In 2024, Political Capital co-organized a two-day expert workshop titled Unraveling Russia's Informational Warfare: Tactics, Implications, and Countermeasures as part of the European Forum Alpbach.
Geopolitics, security policy, and foreign policy in the age of disinformation – these were the key topics of our fourth annual three-day summer university.
Media Appearances
This year our analysts continued to be regular commentators for leading international media outlets. Péter Krekó’s commentary on Sweden’s NATO accession, for instance, was sought after by several outlets, including The New York Times, Newsweek and Deutsche Welle.
In connection with the presidential pardon issue in Hungary, our program director, Bulcsú Hunyadi, gave statements to the Associated Press; our election expert, Róbert László, to AFP; and Péter Krekó to Bloomberg. Regarding Péter Magyar and the TISZA Party, The Economist and The Guardian asked Róbert László.
In September, our geopolitical analyst, Lóránt Győri was asked by Le Figaro about the Trump-Harris debate. International media outlets frequently seek our experts’ commentary on the Hungarian government’s relationship with Russia and Viktor Orbán’s meetings with Vladimir Putin.
Podcast with Radio Free Europe Hungary (in Hungarian)
Our podcast series titled The Power of Disinformation, produced in collaboration with Radio Free Europe, continued throughout the year. In the February episode, we discussed pro-Fidesz Facebook trolls; in March, we covered the advertising expenditures of Megafon on Facebook; in May, we examined how Members of the European Parliament vote on foreign policy issues; and in the summer episode, we focused on disinformation spread by local politicians. One of the October episodes featured guests discussing how the majority of Hungarians believe in conspiracy theories rather than facts, and we also addressed the topic of fake news in the U.S. election campaign. In the final podcast of the year, we explored how the emergence of artificial intelligence could transform political campaigns.
2024 in numbers:
- Over 710 domestic media appearances
- Nearly 200 international media appearances across 12 countries in 12 languages
- 47,000 reach on Facebook
- Over 19,000 Facebook followers
- 680 Facebook posts
- Nearly 900,000 video views
- 26 events
- 3,700 X followers
- Highlighted event: the fourth Budapest Forum, with over 500 guests.
If this seemingly extensive summary does not provide a complete picture of our exceptionally eventful year. If you feel something is missing, we recommend browsing through our newsletters, and to ensure you don’t miss anything next year, it’s worth subscribing!
