Transformation of the global security scene and the future position of Europe

A summary of the interview with Ambassador James O’Brien (Former Head of the Office of Sanctions Coordination at the U.S. Department of State) at Budapest Forum 2025.

Interviewer: Zsuzsanna Szelényi – Program Director, CEU Democracy Institute

Main takeaways

• The post-WWII liberal order is eroding, challenged by China and shifting U.S. commitment to global leadership.
• Uncertainty exists over who will provide global public goods (security, trade stability, disaster response, migration).
• The U.S. domestic debate questions whether America should continue underwriting global stability.
• Possible futures: adaptation of current institutions vs. a disruptive break with no clear provider of global goods.
• The new order may be shaped by a tension between rules-based liberalism and personalist governance.
• Europe can leverage its weight to set conditions for U.S. cooperation and must navigate unpredictable U.S. political cycles.
• On China: despite divergences, Beijing’s restrictive policies on Western firms push EU–U.S. convergence.
• Critical industries for transatlantic unity: AI, life sciences, green transition, and defense.
• Smaller states like Hungary gain influence either through niche expertise or alignment with major blocs, while “connectivity” strategies offer limited power.

Explore all the panel discussions from Budapest Forum 2025 here.