From Dayton to Deadlock? Internal Challenges and International Actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina is experiencing one of its gravest political crises since the Dayton Peace Accords, sparked by Milorad Dodik’s refusal to comply with a court ruling and his challenge to the High Representative’s authority. The crisis highlights the fragility of the country’s legal-institutional framework and the lasting influence of international actors.

Although Dodik maintains ties with Hungary, Serbia, Russia, and recently benefited from the U.S. lifting sanctions, his external backing offers little real support for his secessionist ambitions. Washington’s approach risks encouraging similar destabilizing behavior by other leaders.

Bosnia and Herzegovina faces entrenched social and economic problems – corruption, brain drain, weak institutions, and low investment – that hinder progress toward sustainable, “positive” peace. EU accession remains the most viable path forward, but its success depends largely on the commitment of domestic political leaders. The study examines these dynamics and the roles of key foreign actors in shaping the country’s political trajectory.

Disclaimer:

This policy paper is implemented by Political Capital, supported by Open Society Foundations – Western Balkans. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the Open Society Foundations – Western Balkans.

Find all materials produced as part of the project “Surviving Small-State Existence in the Western Balkans” here.