Is Fidesz now involving the military in its campaign?

“Protecting Hungary’s critical infrastructure is very important, but there is still time for coffee,” said Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky in a video posted on 26 February. The lighthearted tone suggests how seriously he takes the alleged Ukrainian threat raised by Prime Minister Orbán. Nevertheless, troops have been deployed around key energy facilities. This is yet another escalation of the Hungarian government’s politically motivated scaremongering ahead of the April elections.

• We have written in several analyses that the ruling party has been trying to escalate tensions between Hungary and Ukraine in recent weeks to stoke public fear and anxiety by exaggerating the direct threat and horrors of war. The primary reason behind fearmongering is that Fidesz has fallen short in every other issue in the election campaign thus far. With the general public fundamentally dissatisfied with the government’s performance, Fidesz’s only persuasive message seems to be, “If the Orbán government does not remain in power, there will be war.” Surveys show that Fidesz can sway public opinion with this message. To persuade enough voters, Fidesz must recreate the public atmosphere of spring 2022, when Hungarian society was gripped by profound fear and concern over the outbreak of war in Ukraine.
• The government benefits from suggesting an alleged Ukrainian sabotage operation because it has a monopoly on information about the matter. Apart from intelligence services, no other domestic actors have reliable information on the matter, and NATO allies’ intelligence services are unlikely to comment on it, even indirectly, at this stage. These developments pose a serious risk to the integrity of the election, yet the government is unrestricted in what it says and does, except by its own moral standards and potential political consequences.
• In addition to government statements, billboards, and sensationalist, AI-generated videos, the presence of troops and military vehicles in public spaces could intensify fears of war and perceptions of an imminent threat. This is not the first instance of such measures in Hungary. Similar actions were taken during the 2015 refugee crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. However, it was never proven that the measures were necessary in any of these cases.
• There are surely situations in which protecting critical infrastructure is fully justified. However, the government has yet to substantiate the alleged Ukrainian threat. From a military perspective, it is absurd to assume that Ukraine, which is currently engaged in a defensive war against Russia on the eastern front, would attack a NATO member state in the west. If we take the Orbán government's claim that the Ukrainian leadership is seeking to interfere in the Hungarian elections seriously and assess it logically and critically it becomes evident that such actions would contradict Ukraine’s genuine political interests because they would effectively strengthen the Orbán government.
• If any country is interested in staging false flag operations and blaming Ukraine for them, it is Russia. Russia has already instigated tensions in the region with such operations, from Poland to Transcarpathia to Romania. Russia is also interested in damaging the critical infrastructure of Western countries, as evidenced by the sabotage of the Warsaw-Lublin railway line in November. However, the Orbán government rarely mentions Russia. It's as if Russia were not one of the parties involved in the war, as if it had not started the war against Ukraine and as if the shutdown of the Druzhba oil pipeline at the end of January were not caused by a Russian attack.
• Even if a false flag operation were to occur in Hungary during the election campaign, it could pose political risks for the Orbán government. Despite its apparent military preparedness, the government could face backlash if it is unable to defend the country. The government would not be the only entity to take a stance on who the perpetrator is. Allies’ intelligence services would likely investigate as well because Hungary is a NATO and EU member. Ultimately, it is impossible to predict how such an event would affect Hungarian voters, most of whom currently distrust the government.