Great powers and the Western Balkans

In the fifth year of Russia’s war in Ukraine and in the second year of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the global order is at a critical crossroads. Potential changes in international affairs – notably in transatlantic relations, the contestation of international law and multilateralism, and the rise of a multipolar world system – are reshaping great and regional power competition. These shifting dynamics are visible in the Western Balkans, too.

The region has long been at the center of global and regional power rivalries. Influential actors such as the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Russia, China and the Gulf states have, over the past decades, demonstrated their politico-military, economic and societal influence in the Western Balkans. They have relied on a wide array of tools to project their power, including diplomacy, economic engagement and coercion, and soft power skillsets. While the traditional roles of these actors remain largely intact, recent changes in global affairs – most notably the war in Ukraine and the global policies of the current U.S. administration – have, in some cases, altered how these powers approach the region and seek to expand their influence, and how the public views their partnerships and presence in their respective countries.

This paper analyzes great and regional power dynamics in the Western Balkans in the post-2022 period. Rather than merely highlighting the ways and means through which these actors insert influence, the analysis emphasizes the evolving nature of these powers and examines how they have adapted their strategies in response to broader geopolitical shifts. In its second part, the paper shifts the focus from external to domestic actors: instead of examining how great and regional powers act, it places local actors at the center, asking whether they have been able to instrumentalize great power rivalries to their own advantage, and how the local population perceives their influence.

The actors considered in the analysis include the principal powers engaged in the Western Balkans: the United States under President Trump, the European Union, Russia following Ukraine’s full-scale invasion, Turkey, China and the Gulf states, most notably the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Disclaimer:

This policy paper is implemented by Political Capital, supported by Open Society Foundations – Western Balkans. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the Open Society Foundations – Western Balkans.

Find all materials produced as part of the project “Surviving Small-State Existence in the Western Balkans” here.