Budapest Forum 2026 – Between Washington, Brussels, and Taipei: Security in a Changing World

The sixth edition of the Budapest Forum, the joint event organized by the CEU Democracy Institute, the Municipality of Budapest, and Political Capital Institute focused this year on the dynamics of democratic renewal after illiberalism, the changing global security environment, and Europe’s challenging political future.

Panel discussion: Between Washington, Brussels, and Taipei: Security in a Changing World

Speakers

• Tamás Csiki Varga, Senior Research Fellow at the John Lukacs Institute for Politics and Strategy, Public Service University 
• Roland Freudenstein, Freedom Hub, Senior non-resident Fellow of the Center for European Policy Analysis  
• Ivana Karásková, China Team Lead, Association for International Affairs 
• I-Chung Lai, President, Prospect Foundation, Taiwan 
• Moderator: Bernadett Szél, Research Affiliate, CEU Democracy Institute; MOFA Taiwan Fellow, 2025 

Main takeaways

• The Trump administration is characterized by unpredictability, which shapes the global security architecture, including Taiwan-China relations. Trump offering to sell weapons to China and then reversing that decision is an example of that. We can no longer talk about strategic ambiguity when examining the US’ foreign policy, but unpredictability and ad-hoc decisions.
• The political architecture of deterrence is crumbling, both in Europe and the US. Europe can offer economic deterrence to make an invasion of Taiwan as costly as possible for China. However, with an eye towards local conflicts and crisis, particularly the war in Ukraine, Europe would not have the capacity help Taiwan in military terms in case of an invasion.
• From a Taiwanese perspective, Trump’s statements caused anxiety, but his actions have been consistent and disciplined regarding Taiwan, fostering cooperation and acting in the light of strategic ambiguity. At the same time, China refuses to maintain dialogue with Taiwan.
• Regarding foreign information manipulation and interference, Chinese disinformation skyrocketed since the 2010s in Taiwan. Main messages emphasize democratic dysfunctionality of Taiwan, while earlier, the narrative was focused on framing China as the motherland of Taiwan. Fact checkers in Taiwan face difficulties to keep up with the flood of disinformation, given that it requires quick responses and short messages to win the “battle of narratives”.
• In Europe, Chinese disinformation matters when it addresses local issues and therefore increases distrust in governments, the EU and NATO, rather than promoting Chinese interests directly.
• Taiwan matters for China because it is free and prosperous and building success stories based on democracy is what connects Europe and Taiwan. Europe is learning the lesson from Ukraine to increase defense capabilities, including the switch to mass produced cheap and less sophisticated weapons instead of costly, but more advanced technologies.
• Looking at Russia and China, a pattern of autocracies attacking or threatening to attack neighbouring countries with some shared history and culture can be observed. Regime stability and feeling threatened by a more democratic, yet successful country in geographic proximity is another parallel. Notably, Taiwan depends on the US and regional allies in terms of defense capabilities, the same way Ukraine does. However, China is a stronger opponent than Russia, due to a more advanced military.
• Taiwan matters from a European perspective, because the Taiwan Strait serves as a focal point for global trade and has an important role in the tech sector and AI-driven development.
• Central and Eastern Europe does not have an unified position on China and Tawain. On EU level, China is already on the security agenda with an eye towards the war in Ukraine.
• On a more pessimistic note, economic deterrence is not enough to prevent or end aggression. However, maintaining economic pressure and introducing sanctions still matters.

This panel discussion was co-organized with the Taipei Representative Office, Budapest.

Explore all the panel discussions from Budapest Forum 2026 here.