Hungarian elections: Four more years for Fidesz, Jobbik gains strength

Summary

• The Hungarian parliamentary election has left only one question open, whether the governing party can retain its two-thirds majority in Parliament or not. This question can remain open by 12 April, until the finalization of the election results. It has a real  political significance: the two-thirds majority is the only thing that Fidesz can lose as the result of the election. But anyway, no serious change is expected in governmental policies: nationalist rhetorics, “unorthodox” economic policies, centralization, and Eastern Opening in foreign policy is expected to continue. Orbán, in his first post-election statement, said that he is committed to keep the country within the EU.
• Fidesz performed worse than in 2010, but the new election system helped them gaining a two-thirds majority (or near) again. The left-wing opposition lagged behind previous expectations. The huge imbalance between the left-wing and the right-wing remained: the two right-wing parties, Fidesz and Jobbik altogether received almost two-thirds of the votes on the party list (similarly, they gained 70 percent four years ago).
• Jobbik received more votes than in 2010, partially as a result of their professional campaign based on a more moderate image, and the lack of political challenges they faced from both left and right. If Jobbik remains unchallenged (with the left paralysed by its internal conflicts and the right is unwilling to go against Jobbik politically), they can use their momentum to perform well on the European Parliamentary elections in May and the municipality elections in autumn, and they even have the chance to become a governmental party by 2018.

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