The outcome of the Budapest Pride: Another crack in the Orbán regime – hardly the “master plan” of Fidesz
This year’s record-breaking Budapest Pride march revealed the fragility of the Orbán regime. However, it’s still too early to talk about its downfall.
The 2025 Budapest Pride parade was a major failure for the Orbán regime
During his annual State of the Nation address in February, Viktor Orbán confidently declared that the Pride parade would not take place this year. He also advised the organizers not to bother planning it. Despite legislative changes and an intimidation campaign, the result was the largest Pride parade yet, which is a clear sign of the regime’s fragility. Nevertheless, the government is trying to portray the demonstration as a drag queen show and is suggesting that everything went according to Viktor Orbán’s “mater plan”. He allegedly trapped the opposition by associating them with the Pride parade and portraying them as Pride supporters. However, the crowds were too large for these reframing attempts to convince anyone beyond the most committed Fidesz voters. The march, probably the largest demonstration since 2010, showed considerable strength. This is a decisive factor in Hungarian (and generally in) politics because the majority of voters tend to support whoever appears strongest. Furthermore, the government’s hasty communication efforts may cause it further damage: while the initial argument for banning the Pride march was to protect children, the “master plan” narrative reveals that the government’s actions served only partisan and power interests.
TISZA leader Péter Magyar managed to avoid Fidesz’s trap, but he also had to make adjustments
The largest opposition party, TISZA, tried to distance itself from the Pride debate. The main reason was to avoid dividing its heterogeneous voter base on the issue, even at the cost of sharp criticism from some voters, especially in Budapest. For about four months after Viktor Orbán’s February speech, this tactic seemed viable and successful. However, as the Pride March approached, it became increasingly difficult for Magyar to avoid the issue. He addressed the issue before the event and acknowledged the march’s significance and success afterward.
Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony took a risk and won
As we noted in our previous analysis, a spontaneous division of labor has emerged among the opposition: Péter Magyar did not engage in the Pride issue, which Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony then picked up and pursued consistently. By taking on the role of organizer, Karácsony took a considerable risk, and the march’s unexpectedly large success is largely due to him — even though it’s clear that, without TISZA’s meteoric rise over the past year, the march’s fate would have been very different. Consequently, Karácsony’s standing has improved among opposition voters and in the eyes of the international press. However, opposition parties close to the mayor are unlikely to benefit from this success.
The far-right Our Homeland party could be another winner of the Budapest Pride
Fidesz could lose significant ground in far-right circles. For decades, the governing party has maintained a symbiotic relationship with the far right. It has adopted the themes of the far right in an attempt to dominate the entire right-wing spectrum. In turn, the far right sees itself as a driving force that steers public discourse and Fidesz policy "further and further to the right." Many on the far right have long viewed the government’s policies as not radical enough. However, the government's failure to ban the Pride march and especially the event's professional police protection could elevate their discontent to a new level. While a handful of counter-protesters are being hailed as heroes on the far right, the Pride march is yet another, and probably the strongest, piece of evidence so far of the ruling party's cynicism. This fits a broader pattern, such as Viktor Orbán’s open support for Romanian far-right presidential candidate George Simion. A lesser-discussed political consequence of the march is that radical right and far-right voters who supported Fidesz for its perceived strength may become disillusioned with the ruling party and gravitate toward Our Homeland instead.
The deeper dynamics behind Pride’s success
Although the Pride march may have overshadowed them, the series of crises that have become the primary source of public dissatisfaction with the government continued unabated across the country last week. The Orbán government is trying to stimulate economic growth through borrowing. The Balaton railway line collapsed several times, prompting János Lázár, the minister of construction and transport, to remove the online train tracking platform. The healthcare crisis continues to deteriorate. Unsurprisingly, all reputable opinion polls show TISZA in the lead while public perception of Viktor Orbán and his government's competence steadily declines. Last year, most people saw Orbán as the more competent head of government. This year, however, Péter Magyar has taken the lead.
Contrary to the government's propaganda, Fidesz does not have a communication problem. Rather, the government’s performance and the country’s deteriorating condition fuel the growing dissatisfaction and desire for a change in leadership among an increasing number of voters. Beyond the demand for civil liberties, the record-breaking Pride march has become a symbol of this discontent.
It's unclear what will happen after the crowds leave the streets
Although all signs have been pointing in this direction for some time, the fall of the Orbán regime does not necessarily follow from the presence of crowds or the results of opinion polls alone. This weekend’s powerful images obscure the fact that Fidesz’s core base remains intact. Although the government's fiscal room for maneuvering is not comparable to that of 2021/2022, the nine months until the election could be enough time to win back some lost peripheral voters. It remains to be seen how far the Orbán regime will go to retain power. Let us not forget that massive crowds have flooded the streets of Serbia for weeks and months, yet Aleksandar Vučić remains in power to this day.
Nevertheless, the cracks in the Orbán regime will continue to widen. The organizers and the tens or even hundreds of thousands who participated in the Pride march experienced firsthand that they can defy the power and authority of Fidesz and that their actions can have an effect. Although Pride unfolded independently of Péter Magyar, the demand for political change will most likely continue to be reflected in his electoral support.
Disclaimer
As an institute committed to human rights and democratic values, Political Capital joined 70 other civil society organizations in signing a statement supporting the organizers of Budapest Pride and the right to peaceful assembly. Political Capital also supported the event.
