The political prospects of the radical right in Hungary

Summary

• Following its mayoral election victory in an Gyöngyöspata, a village in Heves county that made headlines when in the spring anti-Roma paramilitary organizations “patrolled” its streets; Jobbik is guaranteed to make regular references to its election victory in Gyöngyöspata and see its policy of generating ethnic tensions in small communities justified. The victory in Gyöngyöspata is not an indication that Jobbik is gathering force at the national level, but following the victory, Jobbik can gain momentum on the national level as well.
• In the past few months, despite lingering internal conflicts Jobbik managed to close ranks and, turning up the volume of its anti-Roma and anti-Semitic rhetoric, it attracted renewed public attention. Moreover, aggravating conflicts in Gyöngyöspata, it scored a victory at the local level.
• Major political trends marking the coming period (the eroding support for the governing party, focused attention on Roma integration, continuing austerity measures) may create fertile ground for Jobbik to stabilise and consolidate its voter base.

The complete analysis can be downloaded from here (pdf, 236 kB).